Eastern Conference
1. Boston (63-19)
2. Cleveland (61-21)
3. Orlando (59-23)
4. Chicago (47-35)
5. Atlanta (46-36)
6. Miami (42-40)
7. Toronto (41-41)
8. Washington (40-42)
9. Detroit (38-44)
10. Philly (36-46)
11. Charlotte (35-47)
12. Indiana (33-49)
13. New York (30-52)
14. New Jersey (25-57)
15. Milwaukee (20-62)
The top of the Eastern Conference will be a year-long battle between Cleveland, Boston and Orlando for the top spot, which will inevitable end up being claimed by the Boston Celtics. The addition of Rasheed Wallace and the continued improved play from Rajon Rondo will ease the pressure from “The Big Three” and will allow for them to play reduced minutes all season long. This will be enough to stave off the Cavaliers for the #1 seed in the East. Lebron James, Shaquille O’Neal and company will be on their heels the entire season but will have to settle for 2nd in the East. Getting Shaq integrated as well as Anthony Parker will take a bigger adjustment than bringing in Sheed as Boston’s sixth man. For similar reasons, Orlando will lag a bit behind these two powerhouses, first trying to get VC acclimatized into the offence and then, Rashard Lewis on the same page after he returns from his performance-enhancing induced suspension. Nonetheless, the gap between the top three in the East and the rest of the conference will be very wide and it would be surprising to see any other team be within striking distance of these three.
The Chicago Bulls will improve with Derrick Rose at the helm again this year, enough to edge out the Atlanta Hawks for the #4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round. Rose will continue to develop into an elite PG, building upon his strong play from last season’s epic playoff tilt with the Celtics. Following close behind will be the Atlanta Hawks, who are buoyed by the acquisition of Jamaal Crawford. He will provide them with some strong numbers off the bench and another outside shooting threat, and may even make a run at Sixth Man of the Year.
Whether or not Beasley recovers from his trip to rehab to be a valuable contributing piece in Miami or not, Dwyane Wade will once again put the Heat on his back and carry them into the playoffs in a season that will have him in the mix for MVP. There appears to be great fervour in Toronto ready to vote Brian Colangelo for Prime Minister for completely revamping the team in the off-season. While he certainly deserves heaps of praise for his moves, they will end up only improving the Raptors into a playoff team and a relative disappointment for all of the expectations to be a top-4 team that could advance into the second round of the playoffs. The big question will be if Chris Bosh even is a Raptor by season’s end, let alone in 2010-2011.
The last playoff spot will be earned by the Washington Wizards, whose prospects took a hit as a result of Antawn Jamison’s injury. With Agent Zero perhaps not 100% fully recovered from last season’s crippling injury, it will take some time for this team to gel and be completely healthy, preventing a higher finish in the standings. In spite of their big off-season splash, the Pistons will be on the outside looking in, as they simply have no interior presence to go with their guard-oriented offence. Philadelphia will also have a disappointing year as Elton Brand is shades of his former self and having Louis Williams at the point instead of Andre Miller will have a terrible effect on the club. Andre Iguodala will shine but the wins will not be there. The Charlotte Bobcats are about to lose Raja Bell for a significant period of the season, which may open the door for D.J. Augustin to have a breakout fantasy season. In the real standings though, Larry Brown will grimace and groan with his squad and another trip to the lottery.
Danny Granger will have another monster year, but with no real supporting cast, the Indiana Pacers will be hard pressed to win 35 games this season, but should be exciting to watch. In New York, they will be counting down the days until the 2010 Free Agency period begins in hopes of “Landing Lebron” (or Wade or CB4). The soon-to-be Brooklyn Nets will be doing the same after completely gutting their roster in recent years. Brook Lopez and the new “2009-2010 King of China” Yi Jianlian form a solid front-court duo that should produce some wins for their new Russian owner. “If Jesus is payin’ Lebron, I’m payin’ Dwayne Wade” – Jay-Z (who is he bringing to Brooklyn this offseason?) Bringing up the rear in the Eastern Conference will be the Milwaukee Bucks. Brandon Jennings will have a solid rookie campaign but beyond him, is there anything noteworthy about Milwaukee?
Western Conference
1. LA Lakers (66-16)
2. San Antonio (60-22)
3. Denver (55-27)
4. New Orleans (50-32)
5. Dallas (48-34)
6. Phoenix (45-37)
7. Portland (44-38)
8. Oklahoma City (41-41)
9. Utah (40-42)
10. Houston (37-45)
11. Memphis (33-49)
12. Golden State (32-50)
13. LA Clippers (30-52)
14. Minnesota (19-63)
15. Sacramento (15-67)
The Los Angeles Lakers will run away with the West again this year as the defending champions seem untouchable, even with the downgrade from Ariza to Artest and the toll that last season’s regular season and playoff run took on the team. The Lake Show will secure the #1 seed in the Western Conference and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, which will be a key factor in the Finals.
The San Antonio Spurs will re-establish themselves at #2, edging out the Denver Nuggets, who will settle for third. The Spurs have gotten younger and are hoping for better health for Duncan and Ginobili, which will have to be the case in order to pose a serious threat to Los Angeles. While everything seemed to go Denver’s way last year, a major step back does not seem to be in the cards as Billups and Carmelo have a full season to work their magic together. The last team to secure home-court advantage in the first round will be Chris Paul’s New Orleans Hornets, looking to distance themselves from last year’s embarrassing showing in the playoffs. CP3 may very well be the best fantasy player and PG in the league and if Peja and Okafor can stay healthy, they should make some noise out West.
The Mavericks have reloaded this offseason by bringing in The Matrix, but will be hurt by Josh Howard’s inconsistency and injuries. Dirk on his own will keep this team in contention and if Marion can return to his Phoenix form, they can compete with LA, Denver and San Antonio. Phoenix has been written off for dead by many critics, but they have the potential to be one of the biggest sleepers. They actually have an offensive system in place again as opposed to last year and the Nash-Amare combination, albeit older, can run and gun with the best of them. The Suns have not set just yet although this may be the last season for Phoenix before mediocre times loom.
One of the popular picks for a resurgent year has been Portland. However, the mishandling of Andre Miller, by bringing him off the bench to start the year seems to be a sign that this team is going to be a big disappointment, especially if Greg Oden does not give them consistent play, in which case, I would not be the least bit surprised to see them missing the playoffs entirely.
My shocking pick of the year is the Thunder to slip into the playoffs as the #8 seed before being spanked by the Lakers. Russell Westbrook could see a Rondo-like improvement in his second season. Kevin Durant is ready to emerge into MVP discussions and will average close to 30 PPG. Jeff Green is an excellent third option and James Harden could step up as a slashing Rookie of the Year candidate. If all of these things fall into place, the Thunder will not be on the outside looking in and the future may very well be now.
The Utah Jazz will have chemistry problems to deal with all season until Carlos Boozer gets dealt. They have no real options on the wings and while Deron Williams may finally crack the All-Star team, they appear to have the formula for a team that is about to fall out of the good graces of the NBA playoffs. The Houston Rockets are a popular sleeper team but they are missing their franchise player for the entire season, and their former franchise player will never be the same after surgery after surgery. What is left is a bunch of role players, and while Ariza and Battier may shine along with Aaron Brooks at the point, it is hard to imagine this team sniffing the playoffs without Yao.
It is sad to see AI’s career go down this road, but at least he will give fans another reason to tune into Memphis games along with Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph(!?) and OJ Mayo. While they may be somewhat exciting to watch, they will struggle to win games and perhaps Iverson may find a new home at the trade deadline. Similarly, Golden State will also be an exciting team to watch, especially with Stephen Curry being named to the starting lineup.
The LA Clippers seemed to be ready to take a positive step in the right direction but the injury suffered by Blake Griffin just sets off the alarms that this franchise has never taken any steps in the right direction for the last couple of decades, and may be destined to perennial doormat status. Speaking of doormats, the T-Wolves dream backcourt duo of Flynn and Rubio may one day make a formidable pair, but it will not be until 2011 at the earliest. Al Jefferson could emerge into a bonafide superstar or he could miss half the season with an injury. Regardless, Minnesota will be looking towards the lottery again for off-season improvements. Bringing up the rear in the NBA will be the Sacramento Kings. This team will be hard-pressed to score 85 points, but will at least give Tyreke Evans plenty of time to shine. Francisco Garcia’s injury just about clinched the worst-record in the NBA for Sacramento. Let’s hope that they have better luck with the ping pong balls this year!
Playoffs:
East: Cleveland over Boston in 7
West: LA Lakers over Denver in 6
Finals: LA Lakers over Cleveland in 7
Finals MVP: Kobe Bryant
There is no truth to the rumour that in the new NBA contract with the referees that a special “Donaghy Clause” was inserted into the agreement where the referees had to “fix” games in order to guarantee a Kobe vs. Lebron & Shaq Finals that went to 7 games. Regardless, the stars will align for one of the most anticipated matchups of all-time and Kobe’s Lakers topple the Cavaliers in a thrilling seven game series.
MVP: Kevin Durant
This is an off-the-board pick, but as much as everyone thinks Lebron is a lock to repeat, it is very rare to see a repeat winner, outside of the inexplicable back-to-back from Steve Nash. The addition of Shaquille O’Neal will make it even more difficult for writers to cite a lack of supporting cast and may also cause a regression from last season’s numbers. While other perennial contenders Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade and Chris Paul will be in MVP discussion, it says here that Kevin Durant is going to emerge from obscure Oklahoma City and not only lead the NBA in scoring but will put the Thunder on his back and stunningly carry them into the playoffs. Writers will have no choice but to lead in the coronation of the new King. Mr. Mac & Cheese, Kevin Durant! Gotta have KD!
ROY: Tyreke Evans
Blake Grifffin is out for six weeks and so the Clippers Curse begins. While Blake was the consensus #1 pick in the draft, and the overwhelming favourite to win the Rookie of the Year award just yesterday, all those prognostications went out the window because of this injury. The door is now wide open and Tyreke Evans is going to seize the opportunity, besting fellow guards, Jonny Flynn and Stephen Curry and the aforementioned Griffin to claim the honour. Tyreke is in a system where he will be able to contribute right away and that is what separates him from both Flynn and Curry. Curry will have a roller-coaster year because of mistreatment from Nellie, which will be enough to cost him the rookie of the year award. Jonny Flynn will give Tyreke a run for his money but Ramon Sessions will eat away at his minutes and his numbers. Evans will put up big numbers and log relatively big minutes with no real opposition in Sacramento and will emerge with the hardware.
MIP: Greg Oden
After going from hero to zero in two short seasons, Oden will put all the potential that he has together and put up some big numbers as the Trail Blazers new starting center. He will have to overcome the two biggest hurdles that have plagued him in his short career: injuries and foul trouble. If he manages to play with his body and not with his hands, his shot-blocking prowess and rebounding numbers will spark a much improved play and the most improved player award. Andrew Bynum should also be in the running and provided he can stay healthy, may capitalize if Oden fails to learn from his rookie mistakes.
Def: Dwight Howard
While Oden has showing the tools to be a great defensive superstar one day, he is nowhere in the discussion when it comes to Defensive Player of the Year. Once again this year, the award will unquestionably be claimed by “Superman” Dwight Howard. I think this is one award that you can take straight to the bank, as outside of a lengthy injury, there is no one who is on par with Dwight. Perhaps Ron Artest could get a few votes, but Dwight seems like a sure-fire lock for this award.
6th Man: Rasheed Wallace
This is going to be a three-horse race featuring key reserves from arguably the three best teams in the NBA. From San Antonio, you have Manu Ginobili, who has been battling through injury after injury for the last two years. While he is definitely a strong favourite for the award, it seems hard to believe he will be playing in 70+ games this season, which will weaken his argument for the award. The other runner-up is Mr. Kardashian, who may have to battle with Khloe for camera time on the sidelines. While Lamar will have some strong numbers off the bench, the all-around game from Sheed coming off the bench to spell Kendrick Perkins will be just enough to be named the Sixth Man of the Year in his new home.
Comeback: Gilbert Arenas
After an injury plagued 2008-2009 campaign, Agent Zero will be back grilling the Hibachi yet once again and will be a force for the Washington Wizards who will return to the playoffs after missing it last season. Gilbert has the potential to average 20+ PPG and 7+ assists if he is fully recovered from surgery.
Coach: Phil Jackson
Phil Jackson has won ten NBA Championships, but remarkable just one Coach of the Year award. While there are many contenders for this award, and if my Oklahoma City prediction rings true, perhaps Scott Brooks may best him, but all signs point to Jackson claiming his second award, after a fourteen year hiatus. Doc Rivers, Gregg Popovich and Stan Van Gundy will all be in the mix, but it will be hard-pressed to deny Jackson if he can lead the Lakers to the best record in the NBA, especially having to integrate Ron Artest into the offence and deal with likely injuries to Gasol and Bynum at some point in the season.
Executive: R.C. Buford
Buford brought in Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess and brilliantly drafted DeJuan Blair in the second round and it appears that these moves will return the Spurs to the top of the standings. While the Spurs may not end up challenging the Lakers for the #1 seed in the West, a 60 win season and the #2 seed seem right within their grasps if Manu and Duncan can stay healthy. If that ends up being the case, Buford’s moves will be lauded by the basketball community and be recognized with an Executive of the Year award.
Other Awards:
All-NBA Team:
G: Chris Paul
G: Kevin Durant
F: Lebron James
F: Carmelo Anthony
C: Dwight Howard
All-NBA Team (#2)
G: Dwyane Wade
G: Kobe Bryant
F: Dirk Nowitzki
F: Chris Bosh
C: Amare Stoudemire
All-NBA Team (#3)
G: Steve Nash
G: Brandon Roy
F: Kevin Garnett
F: Tim Duncan
C: Pau Gasol
All-Rookie Team
Jonny Flynn
Stephen Curry
Tyreke Evans
Blake Griffin
James Harden
All-Defensive Team
G: Rajon Rondo
G: Kobe Bryant
F: LeBron James
F: Ron Artest
C: Dwight Howard
All-Star Game MVP: Dirk Nowitzki & Steve Nash (Co-MVPs) The game is in Dallas after all!
Slam Dunk Contest: DeMar DeRozan
Three Point Shootout: Rashard Lewis
Check back at the conclusion of the season to see how completely wrong these predictions were! |
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